Now You See Them
AMA/Toyota Motocross Championships: Red Bud

The riders always tell you that motocross and supercross is a mental game, and nothing holds up the theory better than when one rider starts dominating a series midway through the season. At about the time it becomes obvious who is going to win, the wheels start to fall off for the competition who hoped to win the races at the beginning of the year.

When the AMA/Toyota Motocross Championship began on Memorial Day Weekend in California, Stewart’s status was a mystery, and Villopoto was expected to face challenges outdoors after a rough indoor campaign. Stewart started winning immediately, while Villopoto did look vulnerable in the first moto of the year. But since the second moto of the season, it was over. They’ve won everything since.

Now, surely the competitors for Stewart and Villopoto competition haven’t forgotten how to ride in two months, but if you look at the results, they’ve all fallen off. Momentum is tricky in this business, and for some reason bad luck starts to hit the riders who aren’t winning, and the riders who are doing the winning just seem to have things come their way.

In the Lites class, Villopoto’s teammate Austin Stroupe won the season-opener and looked strong for a few weeks after. Now the wheels have come off. A pair of crashes and some bike troubles prevented him from finishing either moto at Lakewood, Colorado last weekend, and an illness prevented him from even going to the starting line over the weekend at Red Bud. Villopoto has maintained that Ryan Dungey is his toughest competition outdoors, but Dungey has had trouble at the moment, crashing out of a moto in Colorado, and blowing an engine in a moto at Red Bud. Villopoto’s teammate Brett Metcalfe was in the hunt at the beginning of the season, too, but ever since he overheated himself in the Texas heat and then suffered a big practice crash a few weeks ago, he hasn’t been the same.

Now Stewart is pulling away as well. His main competitor, Mike Alessi, looked poised to run second every weekend and pressure Stewart on occasion, but Alessi suffered a vicious crash at Red Bud that may put him out for the season. Davi Millsaps suffered a similar fate, crashing and separating his shoulder. Millsaps and Alessi have not proven to be injury-prone, but when the losses begin to mount, sometimes strange things happen.

Perhaps the best example comes from Jason Lawrence in the Lites class. He won the first moto of the season at Glen Helen, but once he couldn’t get back to victory lane again, his season started to spiral downhill, culminating with an arrest on Friday night at Red Bud, an indefinite suspension from the AMA, and getting fired from his team. Lately, it has often looked like Stewart and Villopoto can’t see their competitors, and in some ways, they really can’t.